Who wears the crown?

WHO rules Nigeria over the next four years? That is the major task before voters as they go to the polls today to pick the country’s president in the biggest election ever in its history. Although a  total of 73 candidates are in the presidential race, according to the list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the contest from all indications will be a straight fight between the  incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the only candidates to have physically gone round the country to canvass for votes. It has been a tough duel; it is the race of their lives. But the odds seem to be in favour of Buhari with projections and poll experts tipping him to win the most votes.

There are a total of 84 million voters registered for the elections and the March 2 governorship and state assembly elections. Buhari’s APC  is in control of the four states with the largest concentration of registered voters: Lagos 6.8m, Kano 5.4m, Kaduna 3.9m and Katsina 3.2m, and his popularity in the Northwest with 20.1million voters and Northeast with 11.2m voters is unrivalled. Poll projections suggest that in the Northeast,the President will win in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe while Atiku is likely to win in Taraba. Adamawa, where Atiku comes from, is generally seen as a battleground between the two leading candidates, although many residents acknowledge Buhari as the brain behind the relative peace being enjoyed in the state now after many years of insecurity unleashed by Boko Haram.

Most of the states in North Central – Kwara, Kogi, Plateau, Benue and Nasarawa- are regarded as battlegrounds but Buhari is tipped to win in Niger. The Northwest, especially Kano with its enormous votes, has always been Buhari’s comfort zone .His home state – Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Kebbi, Zamfara and Jigawa are all considered safe for him. Same goes for the Southwest where the APC is in control of the six states in the zone:Lagos,Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo. Atiku is projected to win in all the five Southeast states of Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo, although Buhari is tipped to receive more votes in the zone than he did in 2015. Most of the states in the South-South are also projected to vote for Atiku. These are Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta and Cross River while Edo and Akwa Ibom are likely to cast their lot with Buhari. Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina have largest number of voters With  6,570,291 ,Lagos has the largest number of registered  voters for this year’s elections.It if followed by  Kano with  5,457,747, Kaduna with 3,932,492 and  Katsina  with 3,230,230. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said it registered over 84 million voters for the elections .

Following is the breakdown of  how voters were registered  state by state:

Abia 1,932,892 Adamawa 1,973,083 Akwa Ibom 2,119,727 Anambra 2,447,996 Bauchi 2,462,843 Bayelsa 923,182 Benue 2,480,131 Borno 2,315,956 Cross River 1,527,289 Delta 2,845,274 Ebonyi 1,459,933 Edo 2,210,534 Ekiti 909,967 Enugu 1,944,016 FCT 1,344,856 Gombe 1,394,393 Imo 2,272,293 Jigawa 2,111,106 Kaduna 3,932,492 Kano 5,457,747 Katsina 3,230,230 Kebbi 1,806,231 Kogi 1,646,350 Kwara 1,406,457 Lagos 6,570,291 Nasarawa 1,617,786 Niger 2,390,035 Ogun 2,375,003 Ondo 1,822,346 Osun 1,680,498 Oyo 2,934,107 Plateau 2,480,455 Rivers 3,215,273 Sokoto 1,903,166 Taraba 1,777,105 Yobe 1,365,913 Zamfara 1,717,128