The big contest

IT is the sixth presidential election since the restoration of civil rule in 1999. Eyes are on Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, as the people of the highly heterogeneous and consistently fragile federation go to poll. Will the election be free and fair? Will its outcome strengthen the sanctity of the ballot box? Will it meet international best practice? Will Nigeria’s electoral democracy be a model for Africa? Voters are warming up for a festival of choice and change. The international community is also beaming the searchlight on the country. After the presidential and National Assembly elections, Nigerians are expected to also troop out to elect governors and members of House of Assembly on March 2. No fewer than 91 parties are participating in the periodic general elections. But, 71 presidential candidates are on the ballot. The big two are President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and his main challenger, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The semblance of a third force is the Peoples Trust (PT), which is fielding a pro-democracy crusader, Gbenga Olawepo Hashim, as candidate. The fact that only two big parties dominate the scene historically confirms the tendency towards a two-party system. The historical backgrounds are the conflict between the Nigeria National Alliance (NNA) and the United Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the First Republic, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN)/Progressives Parties Alliance (PPA) of the Second Republic, the Social Democratic Party (SDP)/National Republic Convention (NRC) antagonism in the Third Republic, the PDP onslaught against the Alliance for Democracy (AD)/All Peoples Party (APP) in 1999 and the APC/PDP battle of 2015. This is also underscored by the fact that some mushroom parties have decided to queue behind the two major parties through their endorsement of President Buhari and Atiku.

In the National Assembly elections, 109 seats are being contested in the Senate while 360 seats are being contested in the House of Representatives. Foreign observers and domestic monitors are warming up for the crucial electoral duty. Ahead of poll, the Police High Command has emphasised that electoral security should not be compromised. Some police commissioners have been transferred. Few ones were appointed and assigned. Also, the Armed Forces have reiterated their commitment to peaceful polls. During the week, political leaders on both divides stepped up their campaigns, which were rounded up on Thursday. The message of the APC is continuity. The message of the PDP is change.

At 76, President Buhari, who was elected four years ago, is seeking for a second term. He is a General of the Nigerian Army, who fought in the civil war. He is a former military governor of the defunct Northeast State, Federal Commissioner for Petroleum, Chairman of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Military Secretary, General Officer Commanding, Third Armoured Division, Jos, military Head of State and Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF). The president entered politics in 2002 and contested for the presidency in 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015. He failed. In 2015, he defeated incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. His victory terminated the 16 years of dominance by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Buhari campaigned on a four- point manifesto: security, economy, employment and anti-corruption. In private and public life, he is perceived as a man of honour and integrity. According to observers, Buhari cannot be described as a lucky statesman. Fixing a nation at a crossroads is not an easy task. Twice in national history, fate has entrusted on the Daura-born leader the unenviable duty of salvaging a nation in distress; first as a young and energetic General in 1984, and later, as a septuagenarian statesman driven by patriotic anger. Under his leadership, hope has been the elixir for Nigerians in the last three and half years. Three decades ago, he rode to power on military populism.

The conditions that paved the way for his ascension in 1983 were similar to the prevailing circumstances of 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015, which made him to throw his hat into the ring. Reminiscent of the Second Republic, Buhari had warned that the country was in the brink. He lamented that the ship of state was sinking; the economy had been mismanaged, the Nigerian currency had almost become a worthless paper, a culture of theft and graft in high places was thriving, insecurity remained insurmountable, roads were death traps, and hospitals were mere consulting clinics. The nation lay prostrate.

On May 29, 2015, the euphoria of victory at the historic presidential election fizzled out in the face of these mounting challenges. President Buhari inherited little assets and many liabilities. The components of the national burden included a disunited polity, aptly torn apart by the battle for presidential power, an empty treasury ravaged by an avaricious leadership, a huge foreign debt capable of mortgaging the future, depleted foreign reserves, soaring corruption by greedy actors, an army of jobless youths, dilapidated infrastructure, and growing insecurity. President Buhari has managed to overcome his inevitable adjustment difficulties. The image of the new democrat in Aso Villa, Abuja, contrasts sharply with the stern-looking soldier of early 80s in Dodan Barracks, Lagos. In 1984, the military Head of State and Commander-In-Chief was like the lord of manor. There was no parliament to moderate his actions. He was both the legislature and the executive. He ruled by decrees, many of which were draconian. He brooked no opposition.

But, the last three and half years was a different ball game. The President is being constitutionally tamed by the National Assembly and an independent judiciary. Unlike before, the media and civil society groups are active in playing the role of watchdogs in democracy without inhibition. Presidential actions may have also been moderated by the utter sensitivity to the legitimate pressures and demands from the ruling party. Unlike 30 years ago, dialogue is now the watchword. An effort at consensus building is becoming the norm. While adapting to the compelling ethos of democratic culture, dictatorship is foreclosed. No doubt, many achievements of the ‘regime of change’ may have been easily overlooked by a polity that is assailed by collective amnesia. But, the feats constitute, in part, the making of a new nation-state.

The Buhari administration has not only maintained a clean break from the past, it has also offered a new orientation to the polity. The first task was clearing the Augean table by making corruption a risky venture. The President has demonstrated to all that, henceforth, the corridor of power should not be perceived as an avenue for private accumulation. He and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN), have led by personal examples by reducing their emoluments and shunning opulence in office. It was the first preliminary step in setting the tune for reducing the cost of governance. Gone were the days of business as usual. According to observers, Buhari has campaigned during this electioneering more than he did four years ago. During the campaigns, the president promised to build on the achievements of his administration in the four aforementioned areas. The election, they said, will be a referendum on his performance in office. Atiku is a veteran presidential contender. He is a retired Customs Officer and successful businessman. He entered politics in the aborted Third Republic as a disciple of the late Major General Shehu Yar’Adua.

He was a presidential aspirant in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). He stepped down for the late Chief Moshood Abiola at the Jos Convention of the party. In 1999, he was elected governor of Adamawa State. But, the PDP presidential candidate, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, picked him as running mate. He was vice president for eight years. In 2007, 2011 and 2015, Atiku sought for the highest office, but without success. He has traversed some partiesPDP, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC-in a bid to realise his ambition. He is a courageous politician who is undeterred by previous disappointments. Atiku has criticised the APC government for nepotism, for the battle against insecurity that has not been totally won, and for low standard of loving. However, two promises by Atiku stand him out: the actualisation of restructuring and the sale of the refineries. They are controversial.

Many believe that he is campaigning on the borrowed platform of restructuring. Also, many have argued that the refineries are critical c0mmonwealth that should not end up on private pocket. Apart from the president and former vice president, other contenders may not make much impact on Saturday. It is a crowded race, no doubt. But, the remaining flag bearers are largely ambitious, paper-weight politicians, whose parties are unpopular. They are not in popular reckoning. Although the candidates have made names in their various careers, the weak political structures that lack tentacles at the grassroots, may be swallowed by the bigger parties. Although the young, vibrant elements on these platforms raised fundamental issues that are germane to good governance during the campaigns, they could not pull much crowd. At best, these candidates on the fringe may become special spectators on poll day.

The independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), chaired by Prof. Mahmud Yakubu, a political scientist, has assured the anxious country that the poll will be credible and transparent. The body is not leaving anything to chances. Both PDP and APC have criticised the agency for some reasons, but, generally, INEC has asserted itself as an independent institution and an unbiased umpire. According to INEC, 84,004, 084 million registered to vote. This is an improvement in the voting population because 68, 833, 476 registered to vote in 2015. The Northwest has 20, 158, 100, representing 24 percent. The Southwest has 16, 292, 212. This represents 15. 29 percent. The Northeast has 11, 289, 293, which is 13 per cent. Also, the election will hold in 119,973 polling units and results will be collated in 8, 809 wards. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) will vote, Yakubu said, but the prospect of Diaspora voting is foreclosed. In th4e day of election, there will be restriction of movement between 7 am and 4pm.

The Chief Returning Officer for the Presidential Election is the INEC Chairman. The electoral body has released seven-step voting procedure for the exercise. Step 1: Upon arrival at the polling unit, the voter joins the queue and present himself to the INEC official (APO 111) at the polling unit, who will determine whether he or she is at the correct polling unit and check if the photograph on the Permanent Voter Card (PVC) matches his or her face. If satisfied, he or she will direct the voter to the next INEC official (APO 1). Step 2: The official (APO1) will request the voter for his/her PVC to confirm that the card is genuine and the details, using the smart card reader to confirm that the PVC belongs to the person by ascertaining. The card reader will contain the name, photograph and finger prints of all those registered in their polling unit. Step 3: The voter will then meet the next official (APO 11), who will request for his PVC to confirm that his/her name and details are in the voters’ register. The name will be ticked and the PVC returned to him/her. He/she will then apply indelible link to the cuticle of the appropriate finger for that election to show that the person has been accredited to vote.

If the name of the person is not found on the register, he/she will not be allowed to vote. Step 4: The Presiding Officer (PO) stamps, signs and endorses the date at the back of the ballot papere. The PO will roll the ballot paper inwardly with the printed side inwards and give to the voter. He/she will then direct the voter to the voting cubicle where he will vote in secret. Step 5: The voter will stain his/her appropriate finger for the election with the ink provided. He/she will then use the stained finger to mark the space or box provided on the ballot paper for his/her preferred candidate/party. He/she will roll the marked ballot paper in the manner the PO gave to him/her. Step 6: Then, the voter will leave the voting cubicle and drop the ballot paper in the ballot box in full view of people at the polling unit. Step 7: The voter will then leave the polling unit or wait, if he/she so chooses in an orderly and peaceful manner to watch the process up to the declaration of result. Yakubu said about one million ad hoc staff have been recruited.

“The projected increase in the number of ad hoc staff to be engaged in the elections by the commission arose from the need to make provisions for adequate manpower for the exercise on a general template and specifically, to take care of peculiarneeds for that purpose in some polling units across the federation,” he added. Oil-rich Nigeria has had an uninterrupted 20 years of political stability, a far cry from its unenviable experience of intermittent stoppage of civilian administration through coups by restless soldiers. Yet, it is still politically and religiously divided. Also, political stability has not been converted into a special advantage. The stability has not been accompanied by any significant economic success. It seems there is much commit ment to orderly transfer of power by stakeholders than the pursuit of farreaching economic reforms that can catapult the bewildered country into a huge economic miracle.

But, religious and tribal sentiments may not have undue influence on the outcome of the presidential election. The top candidates-General Buhari and Alhaji Atiku-are both Fulani from the North. They are also Muslims. For geo-ethnic and religious balancing, they picked their running mates from the South. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN) of the APC is a Christian cleric from the Southwest state of Ogun. Atiku’s running mate, Peter Obi, is a Christian and former governor of Anambra State. There have been endorsements and counter-endorsements of the two main candidates. The two flag bearers have traversed almost the 36 states for campaigns. So far, the campaigns have not been marred by violence. Interparty conflicts have also been reduced to exchange of hot words in the media. However, since the beginning of the year, elder statesmen and religious leaders have been appealing to politicians to eschew violence.

The Primate of the Anglican Church, Dr. Nicholas Okoh said: “Violence does not drop from the sky. People arrange it. People who organise violence should be asked to bring their sons and daughters or themselves to be part of it so that they can feel the effect. They create problems, go abroad and come back to rule us.” On Wednesday, a peace accord was signed by the president and 72 other candidates. Also, in his broadcast to the nation on Thursday, President Buhari assured the country of his commitment to free and fair poll and urged the youth to shun violence. In recent elections and by-elections, allegations of vote buying were rife. There is no political party that is insulated from the electoral fraud.

Yakubu warned against the menace, saying that perpetrators wikl be dealt with in accordance with the law. According to observers, there are some mistakes that should not be repeated, if INEC is to conduct a hitch-free exercise. In previous polls, the failure of card readers generated anxiety and tension. The INEC chairman has assured that the machines will not malefaction. Also, INEC staff are expected to be regular and punctual at the polling booths. It is expected that in the coastal states where some locations cannot be reached through vehicles, adequate arrangement should be made to ensure that electoral materials get to those remote communities under police protection. Yakubu has also urged his staff to be patriotic and shun bribery and corruption to avoid the repeat of the trial of INEC staff who committed electoral offences in the course of their duties during the last election.