12 states to watch as APC, PDP

Apart from Anambra, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Osun and Bayelsa states, where governorship elections take place at different dates, there will elections in 29 other states today. Some of the states are regarded as battlegrounds, where the contest is likely to be fierce. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI looks at the prospects in some of the states.

AFTER penultimate Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections, political parties shifted attention to today’s governorship elections, particularly in Lagos State because of its cosmopolitan nature and its status as the nation’s commercial capital, and number of battleground states across the nation. Two of the states where governorship elections are going to take place in the Southwest this time around have been dubbed as battlegrounds, because of the peculiar nature of the contests in these states.

The states are Ogun and Oyo. There will be no governorship elections in Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, because the contest takes place in the three states on dates outside the regular four-year election cycle. In the Southeast, the elections in Imo and Abia have been generating interest from observers from far and near, because of the situation on ground in the states and the intrigues that are expected to shape their outcome. For the South-South, the states to watch are: Akwa Ibom and Delta.

The contest in the North-Central states of Kwara, Plateau and Benue would also give stakeholders there sleepless nights. With the possible exception of Sokoto, Gombe and Adamawa states, where there have been a realignment of forces in recent times, the governorship contest in Northwest and the Northeast states appear to be tilted in favour of the APC, because of the Buhari factor. Ogun Before last year’s governorship primaries of the APC and the PDP in Ogun State, today’s election was widely expected to be a straight fight between the two parties. But the crises that emerged after the exercise led to the reconfiguration of the political space. While the PDP is battling with the factionalisation that has seen Mr. Ladi Adebutu and Senator Buruji Kashamu lay claim to the party’s ticket, it is the APC crisis that has had a far more devastating impact on the state’s political tempo and colouration.

The APC crisis began when the Ogun State APC chapter, firmly under the control of Governor Ibikunle Amosun, organised its internal affairs to select candidates for the 2019 general elections through the consensus option. This process produced Adekunle Akinlade as the party’s candidate. However, the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) refused to ratify the emergence of Akinlade and other candidates produced by the consensus approach, saying that the party’s candidates must be selected through direct primary. Subsequently, the Amosun camp refused to participate in the primaries conducted by the panel set up by NWC. It was the panel’s primary that produced Dapo Abiodun as the party’s candidate. With Amosun’s backing, Akinlade and his supporters in the party defected to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), with a large chunk of the APC structure. As a result, the Ogun governorship race has become complicated, because of Amosun’s decision to go against the wishes of the party leadership by backing his preferred successor.

This development has thrown the race open, because it may lead to the sharing of APC votes with the APM candidate. Before now, the only factor that united them was the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari.  Both the APC and the APM have now gone their separate ways, making the governorship race unpredictable. The President’s position in the matter does not help matters; he had enjoined the electorate during the recent campaign rally in the state to vote for a candidate of their choice during the gover norship election.  With this state of affairs, the APC has resigned itself to winning without Amosun’s support.

The recent decision to suspend the governor appears to be coming too late. Following his declaration as the winner of the Ogun Central senatorial race, Amosun has been going about openly campaigning for Akinlade, with the full backing of the state machinery.    The PDP would have reaped from the crisis in the APC, if it were not for the internal squabble within the main opposition party itself. INEC recognises Senator Kashamu as the party’s flagbearer, while the PDP national leadership insists that Adebutu is the party’s choice. Both Adebutu, a member of the House of Representatives, and Kashamu had been locked in litigation over the party’s ticket as they both emerged from two parallel congresses.

INEC recognises Kashamu as the party’s candidate in compliance with a subsisting court judgment. The crisis in the Ogun chapter of the PDP has been a big distraction that has prevented the party from fully concentrating on the campaign. On Thursday,the immediate past governor of the state and PDP  chieftain,Otunba Gbenga Daniel, directed his supporters to cast their votes for APC’s Dapo Abiodun today. Simultaneously,Adebutu reached out to Akinlade for a working agreement that will see his (Adebutu’s) supporters vote for Akinlade. Under the agreement,Akinlade will reward  Adebutu and his supporters with key appointments and contracts,if he emerges as governor.

The new alliances have tended to brighten the chances of both Abiodun and Akinlade above those of other candidates. The fourth candidate that is expected to feature prominently in the Ogun governorship race is Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI) of the ADC. This is the third time Isiaka, who is popularly known as GNI, would be contesting the Ogun governorship. Isiaka first contested for the Ogun governorship seat in 2011. After failing to secure the ticket of the PDP, his principal backer, former Governor Gbenga Daniel, floated another platform, the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), to actualise the ambition. This followed the disagreement between him and former President Olusegun Obasanjo over the choice of the PDP governorship flagbearer. It remains to be seen whether Isiaka would profit from the internal crisis rocking the APC and the PDP in the state. GNI’s second attempt, when he flew the PDP flag, was his best shot at the Ogun governorship so far. Oyo There are 37 parties on the ballot in Oyo State.

Apart from the APC and the PDP, the other notable parties are the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Before penultimate Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections, the Oyo governorship was a bit complicated. But, following the performance of the PDP in the presidential election, the Oyo governorship race has become a two-horse race between the PDP candidate, Mr. Seyi Makinde, and the APC flagbearer, Mr. Adebayo Adelabu, as there has been a fresh realignment of forces. Four major opposition parties have teamed up to present a single candidate for today’s election.

The parties are: the PDP, the ADC, the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which were hitherto considered as some of the frontrunners in the contest. They signed an agreement on Monday to back the governorship candidate of the PDP, Makinde, as a consensus candidate for the election. The bid to form an alliance to tackle the APC started few days to the presidential and National Assembly elections. The ADC and the ZLP had last weekend denied that an agreement had been reached to support Makinde. This was, however, resolved on Monday with the signing of the agreement.

The idea to come together, it is said, was mooted by former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala, who is the candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). AlaoAkala had approached his former boss, Rashidi Ladoja, on the need for him to lead other opposition political parties to defeat the APC. Alao-Akala was deputy governor when Ladoja was elected governor in 2003. But, ironically Alao-Akala has since abandoned the group and aligned with Adelabu of the APC, after he reportedly met with the party’s National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Meanwhile, the ADP leadership has asked Alao-Akala to bury the thought of leaving the party. In a statement issued on Monday, the party said it was too late in the middle of the game for the former governor to align with any political party.

It stated that as far as the party’s leadership was concerned, Alao-Akala remains its governorship candidate. The APC candidate appears to an upper hand on the contest, going by the fact that the party has governed the state in the last eight years and has a handful of achievements to showcase for the years it has been in power. Adelabu may be new to some in the Oyo politics, but he is, nonetheless, enjoying the legacy of his grandfather, the late dazzling politician and iconoclast, Chief Adegoke Adelabu (Penkelemesi). Born on September 28, 1970, the young Adelabu, who is a chip off the old block, would ride on the back of his party at the election.

Makinde is also not a push over. Born on December 25, 1967, he has not hidden his interest to occupy the Agodi Government House from the outset. An engineer by profession, he contested the Oyo governorship election in 2015 on the platform of the SDP and came fifth, behind Ajimobi, Ladoja, Alao-Akala and Teslim Folarin of the PDP in that order. Makinde was the main financier of the SDP then and, being his first outing, he had remarkable results in local governments in Ibadanland. Since the end of the election, he had continued to interact with the people and keep nursing his ambition.

To bolster his chances in the 2019 election, he returned to his former party, the PDP, on September 4, 2017, after consultations with national leaders, state leaders and elders of the SDP. With Ladoja out of the race this time, Makinde seems to enjoy the support of the traditional institution in Ibadanland. He also has a good relationship with members of the Ibadan elite, a factor that may swing Ibadan votes in his favour. Lagos The Lagos governorship race is also a two-horse race between the APC and the PDP.

Like in the case of Oyo, the odds in the Lagos race are stacked in favour of Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC, because the state has been governed successfully by the party in the last 20 years of civilian rule. The APC structure in the state is intact and this would surely be deployed to secure Sanwo-Olu’s victory in today’s election.  Indeed, the APC intensified its campaign after the presidential and National Assembly elections, by trying to woo non-indigenes, particularly those of Igbo extraction who had always voted for the PDP in the previous elections. With a very rich professional career as a banker where he rose to the enviable senior executive position of Deputy General Manager, Sanwo-Olu is well suited to bring the proficiency, efficiency and singlemindedness of a corporate czar that delivers value to governance in Lagos.

His 12 years’ experience in Lagos public service where he served at the highest level as a cabinet level special adviser and also a commissioner for eight years in the Ministry of Establishment, with responsibility for the entire state civil service in terms of Human Capital development and increased productivity, means his skills in public administration is practical and wellhoned. Nevertheless, the PDP’s Jimi Agbaje is not a pushover and his bid to govern the state cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand.

This is the third attempt of the pharmacist-turnedpolitician to become the governor of Lagos. He first contested in 2007 on the platform of the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA). In 2015, he also ran against incumbent Governor Akinwumi Ambode. Unlike four years ago, when the PDP was at the helm of affairs, Agbaje’s campaign this time around appeared to be hindered by funds. The central theme of his campaign is the idea of freeing the state from the stranglehold of the APC. But, this does not appear to resonate well with a larger percentage of the population, who appreciate that successive APC admin istrations in the state since 1999 have a record of good performance. Imo Imo is another battleground state.

There are as many as 68 candidates on the INEC list, but the frontline candidates include: Hope Uzodinma of the APC; Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP; Senator Ifeanyi Ararume of the APGA; and Uche Nwosu of the Action Alliance (AA). Those who know Uzodinma closely say that he is an epitome of compassion and philanthropy. A political entrepreneur with little or no time for malice and calumny, Uzodinma comes to the Imo governorship race fully prepared with his eyes fixed on the ball. But the crisis rocking the APC in the state may work against his ambition. Indications are that Ihedioha may reap from the crisis in the APC. The PDP candidate would see the result of last Saturday’s presidential election in the state as a boost.

The result announced by INEC at its office in Owerri showed that Atiku got 334,923 votes, to defeat Buhari who garnered 140,463. It would have been a herculean task for him, if the political dynasty of Okorocha had not been decimated. The PDP candidate, who represented Aboh Mbaise/Ngor Okpala Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, has been the most loyal, dedicated and consistent in the pursuit of his ambition among all  the candidates. Of all the major governorship aspirants, he is the only one that has not jumped ship. He has remained a loyal and committed member of the PDP right when he joined the party at inception.

Nwosu is Okorocha’s anointed successor. He defected to the AA after he lost his bid to contest on APC platform. Observers see Okorocha’s attempt to foist his political dynasty on the people as his worst transgression he committed. Nevertheless, Nwosu will be hoping to tap into Okorocha’s dwindling base. The AA candidate’s campaign is well funded, because he enjoys the full backing of the state machinery, which is controlled by Governor Okorocha. But, aside from the Okorocha factor, the AA has no voter base anywhere. It was a briefcase party before Nwosu came into the picture and breathed some life into it.

Abia The Abia governorship election is likely to be another two-horse race between the PDP and the APC. Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, who has been under criticisms for his lacklustre performance in the last four years, will contend with Dr. Sampson Uche Ogah of the APC. Other major contenders are Dr Alex Otti of APGA and Mrs Blessing Nwagba of the SDP. Incumbency is the main advantage Ikpeazu of the PDP enjoys over other contenders. Given the strength of the PDP in the region, he remains the candidate to beat. The victory of former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu in the recent Abia North senatorial race on the platform of the APC will certainly spur the party to approach today’s governorship contest with a positive spirit.

Another factor the APC had going for it in Abia is the purported strategic partnership between it and APGA. Under the partnership, the APGA candidate, Otti, was expected to step down for his APC counterpart, Ogah. Observers had hailed the development as the only way to unseat the PDP, which is very strong in the region. But a few days ago, the APGA flagbearer was insisting that he is still in the race. The Director, Media and Publicity of Alex Otti Campaign Organisation, Mr Kazie Uko, said Dr. Otti has not stepped down from the race. In a statement in Umuahia last Sunday, Kazie said Otti “is still very much in the race”.  He described the rumour that the former bank executive had stepped down for Ogah of the APC as unfounded. He added: “The rumour is a false and deliberate attempt by desperate politicians to confuse the Abia electorate. We urge Abia indigenes not to be distracted by false rumours being spread by rejected and hopeless politicians and their collaborators.” Abia has been described as the worst state in the Southeast in terms of physical infrastructure and development generally. Delta Delta State has been governed by the PDP since the return to civil rule in 1999.

But, the state is one of those the ruling APC at the centre has been eying to take over from the PDP. Though the results of the recent presidential and National Assembly elections do not suggest that the state is likely to embrace the broom revolution of the APC, today’s governorship election may be a turning point for the South-South state. Chief Great Ogboru of the APC is warming up to challenge Governor Ifeanyi Okowa in the election. But, the odds appear to be stacked in Okowa’s favour; no thanks to the zoning arrangement.

There is a prevailing sentiment in Delta North and Delta South to allow the Anioma people to complete their eight-year slot before power shifts from the zone. But, Ogboru who is backed in his quest by Senator Ovie Omo-Agege would not entertain such prospects. The APC flagbearer has been contesting for the Delta governorship since 2003; meaning that he ran in 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015. He lost in all the contests to candidates of the PDP. The APC chieftain who contested the 2015 on the platform of the Labour Party (LP) had described the election as his final battle in the quest to “liberate the people of Delta State”.

A persistent and unrelenting politician, Ogboru has been moving from one party to the other to actualise his ambition to govern the state. He contested in 2003 on the platform of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD); in 2007 and 2011 as a candidate of the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) and in 2015 as the flagbearer of the LP. He lost in each of those attempts and challenged the results at the election petitions tribunal each time. Akwa Ibom The Akwa Ibom race is a straight fight between Governor Udom Emmanuel of the PDP and Obong Nsima Ekere of the APC. Observers believe it is going to be a tough battle. Ekere’s campaign has been enjoying a momentum, particularly with the number of former PDP chieftains in the state that have defected to the APC in recent times.

The APC flagbearer who served the state as deputy governor under former Governor Godswill Akpabio believes Governor Udom has failed to justify the mandate the people of Akwa Ibom gave him four years ago and therefore should be voted out in today’s election. He said the Udom administration has not been able to add anything to the existing infrastructural development in the state and that basic assets inherited have been left to decay. Citing the menace of cultists in three local government areas, the APC flagbearer said his PDP counterpart has also failed in his role as chief security officer of the state.

He added: “The number one responsibility of government is security of lives. Akwa Ibom is usually a very peaceful state. I can tell you today that in three local government areas of the state, the people are not able to sleep at night. They have been overwhelmed by cultists and there is a lot of insecurity. So, you can see that the people have today totally lost confidence in this government.” Conversely, the PDP flagbearer sees his candidature as a divine mandate. The Udom camp believes that the defection of Senator Akpabio has sealed the victory for the PDP, because the people of the state are desirous of continuing with the peace and tranquility that the state enjoyed before the arrival of the former governor.

The governor’s camp also insists that there has been a lot of development and that there is now decorum in the management of the state’s resources. But, the governor appears to be unpopular on the streets of Uyo, the state capital, particularly among civil servants, who accuse him of denying them some of their emoluments, like several years of leave allowances and pensions.

As a result, there is visible anger on the streets, whenever his name is mentioned. How far this will go in deciding the outcome of today’s governorship election remains to be seen. Sokoto The Sokoto governorship election is perceived as a battle between incumbent Governor Aminu Tambuwal and his erstwhile leader and mentor, Senator Aliyu Wamakko. Observers say the emergence of Tambuwal’s deputy, Ahmed Aliyu, as the flagbearer of the APC did not come as a surprise, considering his close relationship with Wamakko. Tambuwal’s camp was happy with the emergence of Aliyu, because Faruk Malami Yabo would have been far more difficult for the PDP to contend with in the general election.

The Sokoto governorship election is regarded as a battle of supremacy between Tambuwal and Wamakko. The former governor of the state parted ways with Tambuwal when the latter returned to the PDP last year, to pursue his presidential ambition. The stage is now set for the political showdown between Tambuwal and his one-time political leader and predecessor.

As an incumbent governor seeking for a second term, Tambuwal would deploy every weapon in his arsenal to win the election. Otherwise, he would become politically irrelevant in the state after the May 29 handover. On the other hand, the overwhelming victory of the APC in the recent presidential and National Assembly elections in the state would propel the party in its quest to reclaim the key Northwest state. Before the February 23 elections, observers had indicated that Wamakko and the APC would have an uphill task persuading the electorate to vote for Aliyu, because people see him as Wamakko’s boy.

The APC leader’s support for Aliyu is believed to have angered some stakeholders in the party, who accuse the former governor of “over pampering” Aliyu since 2007 over and above other party men who equally have ambitions. In 2007, Aliyu was appointed Commissioner for Social Welfare and Youth Development and in 2011, of Health. These privileges were capped when he was made the deputy governor in 2015. Aliyu’s key opponent among other contestants was Faruk Yabo, who at the time of the primary, was seen as a bigger threat to Tambuwal. Yabo too had equally served as a commissioner in two ministries — Finance and Local Government — during the eight-year tenure of Wamakko.

Plateau Plateau is another state where the two major will lock horns today. In the election, incumbent Governor Simon Lalong will represent the APC, while Senator Jeremiah Useni will fly the flag of the PDP. Until the 2015 general elections, the state had been governed by the PDP.  It was narrowly snatched by the APC in 2015. Going by the results of the 2015 governorship election and those of the recent presidential and National Assembly elections, it promises to be an epic battle. In 2015, Lalong was declared winner with a slim margin; he secured a total of 564,913 to defeat the PDP candidate, Senator Gyang Pwajok, who got 520,627; a difference of 24,286 votes. Interestingly, in the recent presidential election, the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, won in 11 out of the 17 local governments with an overall margin of 80,110 votes.

Atiku received a total of 548,665 votes, while President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC scored 468,555 votes. The results of the National Assembly elections do not give any indication of where the pendulum would swing. Kwara The people of Kwara State are set to vote in a landmark governorship election today where Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, is expected to fight for his political survival. Saraki’s loss of his Kwara Central seat in the upper legislative chamber to his APC opponent, Yahaya Oloriegbe, in the recent election is a pointer to what may play out at the governorship election.

The more-than-usual excitement in the state and elsewhere in the country over the coming governorship election is driven by the resurgence of the opposition, following the decision of Saraki and his political associates to return to the PDP last year. The excitement generated by the APC’s battle cry — Oto Ge or Enough is Enough — has reverberated across the country, even before the victory of the APC in penultimate Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections. Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq is the APC flagbearer in the election.

The APC candidate will face Razak Atunwa of the PDP in the election. But, today’s governorship election in Kwara is not about the candidates and their programmes: it is about who controls the politics of the North Central state. Gombe Gombe is another state where the APC will lock horns with the PDP.

Apart from Taraba, Gombe is the only northern state that survived the Buhari tsunami of 2015. Former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bayero Nafada, is the PDP candidate in the election, while Alhaji Inuwa Yahaya is the flagbearer of the APC. Given the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections, the odds are stacked in favour of the APC, in spite of the fact that the PDP is the ruling party in the state. In penultimate Saturday’s National Assembly election, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo lost his bid to represent Gombe North in the Senate. The APC presidential candidate, President Buhari, also trounced his PDP counterpart, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in the state.

Over the years, the APC has not hidden its quest to take over Gombe, where President Buhari enjoys a huge popularity. The PDP may be on the verge of losing the Northeast state, with the spate of defections from the PDP to the APC in recent times. Adamawa There are six major parties contesting today’s Adamawa governorship election.  These are the APC, the PDP, the SDP, the ADC, the Alliance for New Nigerian (ANN) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). But the front-runners in the race are: Governor Mohammed Bindow of the APC, former Acting Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP, Senator Abdulaziz Nyako of the ADC and Emmanuel Bello of the SDP. Ordinarily, Bindow should be confident of winning the contest, as the incumbent. But his emergence as the flagbearer of the APC is still generating controversy.

His opponents within the APC had threatened to support one of the opposition parties should the APC national leadership fail to cancel the primary. But, the APC is confident of winning the state again. The APC Organising Secretary, Ahmed Lawan, told The Nation on Tuesday that the party is taking all the steps necessary to reconcile the aggrieved parties. His words: “We are trying to reconcile all the aggrieved members to work for the victory of the party in Saturday’s governorship election, because we realised our mistake during the presidential and National Assembly elections, which we contested as a divided house. Some lawmakers were given automatic tickets and this did not go down well with many aspirants.”

Lawan said the PDP is doing everything possible to wrest power from the APC. He said the APC has been receiving defectors from other parties since the victory of President Buhari in the recent presidential election. The PDP’s Fintiri has been enjoying some momentum in the last days of the campaign. A few days ago, he received a huge boost, as 10 governorship candidates stepped down and declared their support for him. The candidates announced the decision after a meeting with Fintiri on Monday in Yola, the Adamawa State capital.

The candidates are: Sadiq Khaliel of the MRDD, Danjuma Musa of the FJP, Naziru Sa’ad of the ZLP, Ahmed Hassan of the DA, Salihu Danjuma of the APM, Abdullahi Usman of the NCP, Bappari Umar of the Kowa Party, Lami Musa of the PPN, Elizabeth Isa of the CAP and Frank Simon of the Mega party. The former acting governor, nick-named ATM, is popular with civil servants for paying the controversial two months salaries of striking workers withheld by his predecessor due to a no-work-no-pay policy in 2014 and is expected to pull more crowd than the incumbent governor. Abdulaziz, the son of former Governor Murtala Nyako, is counting on the goodwill of his father who enjoys grassroots support in the state. A retired commander and serving senator, Abdulaziz, has expended the membership base of the ADC since his defection from the APC. Bello, the SDP candidate, may be one of the candidates to beat if Christians decide to give him block votes, being the only Christian among the four contending parties.