2019: STORMY STATES brace up for governorship campaigns (1)

WITH the ban on electoral campaigns for the governorship elections scheduled for March 2 next year set to be lifted tomorrow, there is palpable anxiety in many states over the tone the campaigns may likely take, based on antecedents and the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the candidates in the affected states. Numbered among such states are Ogun, Adamawa, Sokoto, Kwara, Zamfara, Kaduna, Rivers, Benue and Imo, reports Raymond Mordi, Abdulgafar Alabelewe, Ernest Nwokolo, Rosemary Nwisi, Uja Emmanuel, Adekunle Jimoh and From Okodili Ndidi, Owerri Sokoto: It’s Tambuwal versus Wamakko THE campaign for next year’s governorship election in Sokoto State is expected to be stormy. The exercise, which kicks-off tomorrow, is likely to be dominated by two major parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). It would be a battle of supremacy between Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, who would be the arrowhead for the PDP campaign, and his predecessor, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko. The confirmation of Tambuwal as the candidate of the PDP raised the stakes in the contest, because it means a direct confrontation between the governor and his predecessor. The former governor was instrumental in Tambuwal’s emergence as governor on the platform of APC four years ago after he had served as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Wamakko, who is the leader of the APC in the state, parted ways with his former protégé when the latter returned to the PDP to pursue his presidential ambition. Tambuwal’s decision to leave the APC, which hitherto controlled the state politically at all levels, meant that he was ready to sink or swim if the gamble failed. Manir Muhammad Dan’iya had emerged victorious at the PDP primary and subsequently, his name was submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the PDP candidate. But after the presidential primary, the party took advantage of the substitution window provided by the commission to field Tambuwal for obvious reasons: as the incumbent governor, he appears to be the strongest candidate that can be presented by the party. So, Tambuwal will square up with his deputy, Ahmed Aliyu, who picked the APC ticket, following the party’s recent governorship primary. Aliyu’s emergence did not come as a surprise, considering his close relationship with Senator Wamakko.

Observers say the Tambuwal camp was happy with the emergence of Aliyu, because Faruk Malami Yabo would have been far more difficult for the PDP to contend with in the general election. Yabo had previously served as a commissioner in two ministries, namely finance and local government, during the eight-year tenure of Wamakko. With Tambuwal’s defection to the PDP, the hitherto solid ranks of the APC in the state have been somewhat broken. For instance, a pressure group within the party called “Buhari Sak”, which has the mandate to protect the interests of President Muhammadu Buhari and has had close links with the governor, is reportedly in a dilemma on whether to support Aliyu or Tambuwal in the governorship contest. For instance, reports say Squadron Leader Aminu Bala Sokoto (rtd) and some members of the group have chosen to support Aliyu while the likes of Prof. Lawal Bashar and Dahiru Yabo, a former commissioner, remain aggrieved. While Dahiru has left the APC and joined the PDP, Bashar is reportedly considering his next option; a development that may not augur well for the APC in Sokoto, considering the influence the aggrieved politicians wield. Tambuwal’s strength is the incumbency factor.

But this will be factored around how he had used the office of the governor in the last three and a half years in meeting the yearnings and aspirations of the people. While he has succeeded in putting down some infrastructure, the general feeling is that he ought to have done more. One of the factors that helped Tambuwal to win almost four years ago was the Buhari candidacy and the fact that the people of Sokoto wanted to go in the same direction with the other northern states. Now that Tambuwal has returned to the PDP and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has come into the mix as the party’s presidential candidate, the two major parties are in for a tough electoral battle in the Northwest state. The governor has a task on his hands, to convince the electorate to go along with him by voting for the PDP rather than the APC, at the governorship and other elections. A source familiar with terrain said the expectation was very high when he came in almost four years ago and that he does not appear to have satisfied the yearnings of those who voted him into power. The major complain against him is that he is not on the same page with the common man on the streets. They say he is not accessible like other governors before him and that his policies are too elitist. Besides, there is also the disaffection on the streets, because of the perception that Tambuwal stays outside the state most of the time.

Tambuwal, however, has the backing of many stakeholders, including former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, who are not happy with what they describe as Wamakko’s dictatorial tendencies. On the other hand, Aliyu’s greatest strength is the backing he has from Senator Wamakko who to date is considered the most influential politician in the state. For that reason, many people believe Wamakko’s endorsement will work for the APC. The former governor is perceived as a strong grassroots mobiliser. Observers say during his tenure as governor, his house is always filled with people waiting to see him at each point in time and that he gives freely to the people and they appreciate him. Secondly, Aliyu’s grassroots support after serving as commissioner for eight years is expected to play a key role in attracting votes for him. Besides, the fact that Faruk Yabo who lost out in the primary has elected to remain in the APC is a factor that will bolster APC’s chances. Peep into Ogun APC, PDP as governorship campaign begins THE die is cast for the governorship contest once again in Ogun State with the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) opening the door for electioneering campaign by candidates and political parties.

But while the fringe political parties appear set for the race to produce a successor to Governor Ibikunle Amosun, the same cannot be said of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Fringe parties like Social Democratic Party (SDP), Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), Alliance for Democracy (AD), YES Party and the resurgent African Democratic Congress (ADC) have already produced their governorship candidates after their seamless primaries. In fact, their feet are already on the campaign throttle in readiness for the political battle ahead while the APC and the PDP are yet to get their bearings right following the bickering that arose from the choice of candidates during the primaries.

The foregoing situation is already creating confusion and disillusionment among party members and supporters, particularly in the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) where the national body of the party reckoned House of Representatives member, Ladi Adebutu, as its governorship candidate while INEC accepted Adeleke Shittu as the PDP candidate in the state. Shittu’s name was submitted by the Bayo Dayo faction loyal to Senator Buruji Kashamu, but Shittu’s name has been substituted with that of Kashamu; a pointer to the political calculation that the billionaire hotelier and major financier of PDP since 2011 is in the race for the governorship seat. The faction loyal to Kashamu had secured an order from a Federal High Court sitting in Abeokuta, INEC and the Uche Secondus-led National leadership of PDP to accept and process the list of candidates and delegates submitted to them by the Engr. Adebayo Dayo-led Ogun State Executive Committee of the PDP for the purpose of the 2019 general election. In what is seen as obedience to the court order, INEC wrote to the national body of the PDP, intimating it of her readiness to honour the list of candidates that emerged from the Bayo Dayo faction and which were submitted to the Commission. In electing to obey the court order, INEC reminded the PDP leadership that a Federal High court sitting in Abeokuta had on October 2, 2018 in suit number FHC/ABJ/CFS/636/2016 initiated by Engr. Bayo Dayo (state chairman) and 8 others while INEC and three others were the respondents. And there is no where the disharmony the suit has engendered within the party is felt more than in its campaign, which has continued to portray the party as a house divided as was the case in previous elections it participated in.

The implication of the court order and INEC’s latest position is that the fate of Hon. Ladi Adebutu who emerged from the primary conducted for the Sikirulai Ogundeleled faction of PDP hangs in the balance. Although both camps are now in court over who is the authentic candidate, Ladi Adebutu still parades himself as the party’s candidate, promising to deliver the state to the PDP and enthrone quality governance for the people even as rumour is rife that he has a Plan B, which is to run on the ticket of another political party if his ambition to contest on the platform of PDP does not materialise. But the House of Representatives member representing Remo North, Ikenne and Sagamu Federal Constituency has remained unrelenting in assuring his supporters that he would not be distracted by those seeking to use the courts to stall his political progress and create uncertainty within the party. By his reckoning, the litany of litigations from the faction loyal to Senator Kashamu are only diversionary but would not endure, anchoring his confidence on the legitimacy of the Sikirulai Ogundele-led executive and the outcome of the primary duly conducted by the committee from PDP. He has also been holding political gatherings in parts of the state undaunted, and in one of such gatherings during the week in Ibafo area of the state, he advised party members and supporters to remain focused and determined as they approach the 2019 general elections. He submitted that the dissidents now masquerading as genuine party members and causing a lot of distractions within the party, would be flushed out as soon as possible. Also, PDP’s national legal adviser, Emmanuel Enoidem, allayed the fear of teeming members in the state over the legitimacy of the governorship candidacy of Adebutu. Enoidem was quoted by Dayo Rufai, Associate Head, Media Team, Ladi Adebutu Democratic Organisation, as declaring during the week that any name recognised by INEC other than the one approved by the national leadership of the party is not valid. “I came with a very special message from our National Chairman, Prince Uche Secondus, that In Ogun State, there is only one PDP that is recognised, and that’s the PDP that presented Hon. Oladipupo Adebutu as the governorship candidate of PDP in Ogun State.

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Ladi Adebutu is our recognised candidate in Ogun State,” Enoidem said. With restriction on electioneering campaign lifted, it is now left to be seen how one party with two disagreeable candidates will storm Ogun cities, towns and villages on separate campaign trains to solicit votes from the electorate. For the All Progressives Congress (APC), its candidate is already settled in Prince Dapo Abiodun who is the product of a governorship primary conducted by the Muhammad Ndabawa-led electoral committee sent to Ogun State by the National Working Committee(NWC) of the All Progressives Congress(APC) last October 3. But that has left the party haemoragging with many seeking shelter in fringe political parties. Abiodun has won the ticket, but the task before him is how to win the party’s peace required for a successful governorship contest in a sophisticated state like Ogun. Governor Ibikunle Amosun, who lost the chance to launder all his solely appointed 40 candidates, including his right hand man, Abdukabir Adekunle Akinlade, a candidates on the platform of APC, are all smarting. Since emergence of Abiodun and Akinlade as separate candidates for one APC, and with alleged moves by Amosun to herd his supporters to another political party to pursue their ambition for elective offices in 2019, it has been all confusion and uncertainty in the minds of the people regarding the likely fate of APC. Amosun, who many have continued to accuse of plunging the party into the current crisis by allegedly singlehandedly picking Akinlade in a manner that shut out other contestants, as at two weeks ago maintained that his man was the governorship candidate of the party, who would succeed him in 2019.

Hitherto driven by the assumption that he built the party in the state while others are ‘profiteers’ seeking to reap from where they had sowed nothing, Amosun had insisted on having his way with Akinlade’s candidature until Abiodun entered the ring and believably routed the governor and checked what many party members considered as the incumbent’s inclination to corner everything for himself. Prior to Abiodun’s incursion, Senator Olamilekan Adeola, who had wanted to contest for the governorship seat from Ogun West on the platform of APC was bullied and shooed out of the state, allegedly by the governor after he had also used many innuendoes to qualify the senator representing Lagos West. Now, analysts are saying the palpably cornered Amosun had kept flying the kite that his supporters may toe the path of his predecessor, Gbenga Daniel, who herded his people and anointed candidate, Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, to the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) when PDP denied them the ticket in favour of General Tunji Olurin in 2011. But Chief Bode Mustapha has assured that the ‘war’ is over and advised all party members to come together and rally round Abiodun for the greater task ahead, which is winning the governorship election.

He said the oil magnate and real estate operator from Ogun East Senatorial District would carry everybody, including the governor’s camp, along in the race to ensure the victory of the party in Ogun. It was learnt that the Governor may have weighed the options of leaving the party with his supporters and concluded that pulling out of APC would not profit him as was the case with Daniel and his supporters. There is a flicker of light that APC is settling down quickly for the battle ahead as Prince Dapo Abiodun has appointed his campaign Director-General and other APC stalwarts, with those who contested the ticket with him making the list of his campaign team The campaign Committee is headed by a past Deputy Governor of Ogun State, Prince Segun Adesegun who was named Director-General. Hon. Iziaq Abiodun Akinlade, a former gubernatorial aspirant, is the Deputy Director General. Hon. Bimbo Ashiru and Prince Tella, who were governorship aspirants of the party, were also appointed as director of finance and assistant director of mobilization for Ogun West respectively.