Buhari, Atiku go for broke

President Muhammadu Buhari ,Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and 71 other presidential candidates are returning to the trenches today following the 11th hour postponement of last weekend’s presidential and national assembly elections. Buhari ,who is seeking re-election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC),Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the other candidates will be battling for their share of the millions of votes that will be cast in what promises to be the biggest ever in Nigeria’s history.

The two frontline contenders went for broke, seizing the opportunity of the postponement to push for votes. A total of 109 Senators and 360 Members of the House of Representatives are also to be elected nationwide today. Over 84million voters were registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for today’s elections and the governorship/house of assembly polls on March 9. But only 72.7m voters actually collected PVCs and are eligible to vote today. The elections were rescheduled about six hours before the opening of polls last Saturday by INEC,citing logistic problems across the nation. Its action drew flak from the generality of Nigerians, particularly the two main parties locked in the presidential contest – APC and PDP. Politicians have been busy all week mobilising their supporters for a fresh go.

The parties used Monday to Thursday to re-strategise and fill in gaps in their campaigns. The Federal Government approved the payment of salaries ahead of the 25th day of the month pay day “to enable voters travel”. Information and Culture Minister Lai Mohammed said in Abuja on Wednesday that the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) and Arik and Aero airlines had consented to slash their prices to cushion the economic effects of the polls postponement on voters.

He said: “The National Union of Road Transport Workers, which has about two million members and who operate motor parks in all 774 local government areas of the country, an affiliate of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) with members cutting across drivers, bus boys, motor parks operators etc, have offered to provide discounts to travellers using their motor parks and members who are looking to travel to their respective voting points. This discount is also to encourage voters who would have normally been disenfranchised as a result of INEC’s postponement. This discount is also valid between the 21st of February and the 25th February. “Arik and Aero airlines have also thrown in their own incentives.

Aero contractors have offered 50 percent discount to all travellers who present their permanent voters card (PVC) at the purchasing point. Arik will be selling their one way ticket at N16,000 to any destination across the country. This is to support Nigerians looking to travel to cast their votes. The discount is valid between the 18th of February and the 11th of March. “On the part of the Federal Government also, we decided that to make it easy for those who will want to go back to vote, salary payment started yesterday (Tuesday) as opposed to the normal 25th of every month.

This is just to ease the burden of people who want to go back and cast their vote.” The odds appear to remain in favour of Buhari with projections and poll experts tipping him to win the most votes in spite of the postponement. Buhari’s APC is in control of the four states with the largest concentration of registered voters :Lagos 6.8m,Kano 5.4m,Kaduna 3.9m and Katsina 3.2m.He is a cult hero in the Northwest with 20.1million voters, and Northeast with 11.2m voters. Poll projections suggest that in the Northeast the President will win in Bauchi,Borno,Gombe,Yobe, while Atiku is likely to win in Taraba. Adamawa where Atiku comes from is generally seen as a battleground between the two leading candidates, although many residents acknowledge Buhari as the brain behind the relative peace being enjoyed in the state now after many years of insecurity caused by Boko Haram. Most of the states in North Central – Kwara,Kogi,Plateau,Benue and Nasarawa- are regarded as battlegrounds but Buhari is tipped to win in Niger. The Northwest,especially Kano with its enormous votes ,has always been Buhari’s comfort zone .His home state – Katsina, Sokoto,Kaduna,Kebbi,Zamfara and Jigawa are all considered safe for him.

Same goes for the Southwest where the APC is in control of the six states in the zone: Lagos, Ekiti,Ogun,Ondo,Osun and Oyo. Atiku is projected to win in all the five Southeast states of Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo, although Buhari is tipped to receive more votes in the zone than he did in 2015. Most of the states in the South South are also projected to vote for Atiku.These are Bayelsa,Rivers,Delta and Cross River, while Edo and Akwa Ibom are likely to cast their lot with Buhari. Three weeks ago, the New York-based global research and political risk solutions firm, Eurasia Group,in a report projected that there is 60% probability that Buhari would win the presidential race.

It said: “Opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu Buhari remains favoured to win (a 60% probability). “On election day, the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local political structures and resources—it governs 23 states compared to the opposition’s 12—will boost voter mobilisation and solidify Buhari’s advantage. “Buhari’s suspension of the country’s chief justice on 25 January heightened anxiety over the possibility of a post-election crisis, but the episode does not change Eurasia Group’s view that widespread violence is unlikely.

“Positive news coverage in recent weeks, along with Buhari’s controversial move to suspend Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen over allegations of corruption, have boosted Atiku’s campaign, but it is too late to change the electoral dynamics and Buhari remains favored to win on 16 February. “As we have previously noted, key actors in Atiku’s camp—including his campaign’s director general Bukola Saraki, key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers state, and southeast governors from his People’s Democratic Party (PDP ) —had been disengaged from his election campaign.

“ Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara state, and the southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra State who they view as a political outsider. “The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the stat