From inconclusive to conclusive: Osun election and its drama

or the dramatis personae in the Osun State governorship election, the victory of Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) dropped the curtain on the keenly-contested poll. EMMANUEL OLADESU and BUNMI OGUNMODEDE write on what shaped the election and what is next in the State of the Living Spring.

Lessons of the poll:

The lessons of the governorship election in Osun State are very instructive. The succession battle was full of surprises. The candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Gboyega Oyetola, was pushing for continuity. His Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rival, Senator Ademola Adeleke, disagreed, saying that change was the answer. The people went to the poll. Their verdict: continuity and consolidation. Finally, the battle was won and lost yesterday.

The first lesson is that voters cannot be taken for granted. The performance of an incumbent governor will always count on the day of election. Also, a divided house may not stand the rigour of contest. Thus, a party should always put its house in order. When there is a split in a ruling party, the next election will be turbulent. The implication is that the governor, who doubles as party leader, should combine governance and politic with dexterity.

Another lesson is that the elite, who may suddenly halt their peculiar armchair criticisms, may rise up in the time of logjam to moderate the process by insisting that only a competent material is fit for leadership, his populist tendency notwithstanding.

A tough election:

The exercise was not a walkover for any candidate. It was tough. The campaigns were tasking. Forty eight candidates were in the race for the Bola Ige House, Osogbo. But, eyes were eventually on Oyetola and Adeleke. Anxiety enveloped the two divides. The keenly contested poll was declared inconclusive last Saturday by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), due to some infractions. The apprehension heightened. Adeleke, “the dancing senator” was leading Oyetola by 353. But, the narrow margin was neutralised in yesterday’s supplementary election. From the back, the APC flag bearer was catapulted to victory.

APC and PDP were flexing muscles ahead of the election. It was not the best of times for the two major parties. Although he fought the infrastructure battle with vigour, Governor Rauf Aregbesola was handicapped by dwindling resources. Salaries were not paid as at when due. Civil servants were grumbling. Respite could only come few days to the election. The PDP continued to drum it into the ears of the electorate that a government that had failed to pay salaries and pensions should pack and go without installing a successor. Also, compatriots were deserting the governor, who they accused of high handedness and intra-party dictatorship.

Tension in APC, PDP:

The ruling party was battling with another test of survival. Its shadow poll generated big controversy. Following Oyetola’s emergence as candidate, his co-contestant, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti from Iwo, defected to the African Democratic Party (ADP) to fly its ticket. Many chieftains defected along with him. Former APC chieftains began to fire salvos at the platform. Reconciliation was futile. On poll day, 23,000 votes from Iwo that should have gone to APC were cast for ADP. It was a waste of ballot. Another contestant, House of Representatives Deputy Speaker Lasun Yussuff was apparently kept at arm’s length. He maintained a dignified silence. The result at his native Orolu council was a disaster for the APC.

In Ilesa West, residents were angry. Their local leader, Aziz, led many members to defect to the ADP along with Adeoti. Thus, APC was beaten.

But, the PDP was not insulated from crisis either. Its nomination process was not less acrimonious. One of its strong pillars, Senator Iyiola Omisore, dumped the party to seek refuge under the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Little did the party know that the Ile-Ife-born gladiator will later become its albatross. If Omisore had remained in the PDP, the party would have either won on the first ballot last weekend or at yesterday’s rerun.

Beautiful bride Omisore:

Like the Zik of Africa in the Second Republic, Omisore became the beautiful bride. PDP and APC leaders swarmed his residence at Ife. He seemed to hold the ace. Following a deep reflection, he cast his lot with the APC. His justification was that the PDP, and especially Adeleke, had betrayed him. He recalled that in 2014 when he had a seeming bright chance, his governorship ambition was scuttled by Adeleke’s elder brother, the late Senator Isiaka, who defected to the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to join forces with Aregbesola. To him, that was in bad faith.

Yet, Omisore was persuaded to support the senatorial ambition of Ademola Adeleke in the PDP, following the death of his brother. The APC had denied Adeleke its ticket. The risk produced a fatal effect on poll day. There were two factions of the PDP, led by Soji Adagunodo and Dr. Bayo Faforiji, who was a loyalist of Omisore. To pave the way for Adeleke at the primary, Omisore asked a senatorial aspirant, Bade Falade, to withdraw from the race. The agreement was that the Adagunodo faction will support Omisore’s bid for governor in 2018. At the by-election, Omisore played a prominent role in titling the pendulum of victory towards Adeleke. Later, Omisore was humiliated out of the party.

The emergence of Adeleke as the PDP candidate rattled majority of the elite in Osun who were helpless. The entertaining senator promised nothing. His manifesto was unknown. Due to obvious limitations, he shunned public debates. But, he trod the path of populism, engaging the grassroots during his door-to-door campaigns. He became a crowd puller for his nuisance value.

Had the APC put its house in order, perhaps, the story would have been different. The power of incumbency collapsed on poll day. Prominent party stalwarts relocate to Osun to salvage the situation. Between APC and PDP, there was a clash of strategies. Both parties had enormous resources at their disposal. There was a clash of money. Yet, the money influence failed to deliver victory to them last week. To make a headway, APC reviewed its strategy. PDP also reviewed its tactics. The rejected stones became the cornerstone of the house. APC leaders had to secure the commitment of Adeoti, Senator Adebayo Salami, Lasun Yussuff and Omisore to get victory.

A bridge to 2019:

The poll was important to the two parties. Their leaders wanted to use it to make a point. PDP had hoped to bounce back in the State of Living Spring. If the party had won the election, it would have energised its leaders as a morale booster to gaze at 2019 with confidence and optimism. In contrast, it would have amounted to a monumental tragedy for the APC, if Aregbesola is unable to handover to an APC governor. It would have been a mockery of state and federal incumbency.

For the APC, the poll results have further affirmed the Southwest as the stronghold of the progressive bloc. There will be no PDP governor in the region as from November.

Future of APC, PDP, other parties:

APC is savouring the joy of victory. But, its leaders are locked in a sober reflection. If not for last-minute effort, gloom would have descended on the Osun chapter.

Having won the poll, the party should rededicate itself to the service of the state. The onus is on the incoming governor, who is expected to also assume the reins as the party leader, to learn from the lessons of the past. He should build in the achievements of his predecessors. He should also avoid the mistakes that threatened to liquidate the party.

Reconciliation is the watchword. Aggrieved members who had defected to other parties should be pacified so that they can retrace their steps. In 2014, APC lost nine councils to the PDP. In this election, both APC and PDP ran neck and neck. Therefore, APC should know that Osun has an alternative.

Osun APC should always promote a culture of inclusion. This is necessary to foster a sense of belonging. The chapter should do away with impunity. A crisis resolution mechanism should be in place for people to air ventilate their grievances. The culture of imposition should give way. The party may also review its position on zoning because it has become an emotive issue.

There are more battles ahead. How will Osun APC handle its parliamentary nominations in a way that will not further divide the fold? Will the chapter not risk more defections, if the shadow poll is devoid of fairness, equity and justice?

Governor-elect Oyetola has historic responsibilities on his shoulders. He should not be content with being a technocrat. He should be a politician. Oyetola will be presiding over a divided ruling party and a divided state? Can he be a symbol of unity in Osun APC? Can he unite the chapter? Can the incoming governor also unite Osun?

For the PDP, there are more battles to fight. The major opposition party should not sleep. It should be alive to the role of an opposition in a democracy. The narrow defeat is distressing. Will the chapter accept its fate and move on? Will it challenge the outcome at the tribunal?

For another four years, the party will be left in the cold. But, it will have an opportunity to make a point in next year’s elections. What are the projections of the Osun PDP for 2019? It is evident that the party has spread in the state. Therefore, if it builds on its current electoral achievement, it has a better chance of winning many parliamentary seats in next year’s elections.

Senator Adeleke’s senatorial seat is still intact. He has an opportunity to re-contest. What will be his next move?

The PDP should also embark on reconciliation. Key­­ chieftains who have left the fold should be brought back. Regression to blame game will be counter-productive.