Brave new world at the National Assembly

The expectation within the ranks of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) high command would be that with the exit of Bukola Saraki as Senate President and Yakubu Dogara as House of Representatives Speaker, peace and amity would break out between the executive and legislative branches of government.

There is nothing in the temperament of frontrunners for leadership of the Senate and House – Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila – to suggest that the lingering tension that was a feature of ties between the 8th National Assembly and the executive would be repeated.

While the numbers don’t appear to favour his bid, the refusal of Senator Ali Ndume to join Danjuma Goje in dropping out of the contest, leaves some air of unpredictability in a Senate race that would probably be conducted under a secret ballot.

For the Borno senator to win, he would need at least 10 senators from the ruling party to rebel and back him. He would also need the entire 40-odd votes of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) senators to remain intact. You look at the states and you are hard put to find where those numbers would come from especially as PDP lawmakers are unlikely to vote en bloc.

Were Ndume, against the run of play, to prevail then it would be the Saraki scenario all over. He would have won courtesy of PDP votes and would only survive by depending on the same ballots that brought him to power. He would be beholden to an opposition with a different agenda, confronting an angry ruling party frustrated at being cheated, again, out of a prize they assumed was rightly theirs.

The tension between both sides would hit new heights. I suspect that the ruling party would try everything not just to make the Senate ungovernable for the ‘usurpers’, it would deploy every trick in the book to reclaim its ‘mandate.’

Ndume would be a headache for the APC. It takes very steely character to have defied all pressure and entreaty from his party and continue with his bid knowing there would be consequences whether he wins or loses. He would pay a price for pursuing whatever principle he claims to be promoting by remaining in the contest after the party had taken a clear position backing Lawan. Anyone who is ready to stand alone in this way, is not the sort of character to listen to any sermons on patriotism from Aso Rock.

This may suggest that Lawan or Gbajabiamila would just be pliant tools rubberstamping executive decrees in their respective legislative chambers. It is a burden for the gentlemen because their willingness to work with the executive, as well as being the choice of the establishment, puts them in an awkward position of being labelled as potential puppets.

But the two men are experienced enough to understand that they are required to uphold the constitutional responsibility of the legislature to check the executive, while balancing that with cooperation as one government to deliver on their party’s governance agenda.

The Senate and House are more than their respective presiding officers. The legislators represent hundreds of constituencies across the country – with their differing needs and aspirations. Neither the Senate President nor the Speaker has any powers to impose their personal agendas on the whole without their cooperation or consent. To be able to collar hundreds of lawmakers to a uniform position requires skill to work out compromises.

Presiding officers are also only too aware that the moment their members begin to see them as agents of the executive their support base would quickly evaporate. A wise politician would perform a fine balancing act that enables him retain the backing of lawmakers who want to assert their independence while also doing business with the executive.

That is why, whether it is Lawan, Ndume, Gbajabiamila or some other person who emerges, the 9th National Assembly would still have its fights with the Presidency over modifications to budget proposals, oversight functions and bills that end up being vetoed. Problematic nominees would still have issues clearing the confirmation process. It is the same everywhere no matter how friendly the leaders on both sides are.

In an ideal situation it would be seen as creative tension between arms of government working towards a common end. In Nigeria, we’ve made it out to be the war of the branches; it ought not to be so. President Muhammadu Buhari would help by not expecting the National Assembly to merely chorus ‘rankadede’ whenever he sends proposal.

Our constitution has given the National Assembly the power of the purse and as check on the executive. Just as the executive is not perfect in carrying out its functions, so also our legislature must be seen as work in progress. Thankfully, the courts are there when disagreements between the sides become intractable.