2019:Big players in make-or-mar battles

A unique feature of the forthcoming elections is the test of might by some political heavyweights who are battling to assert their influence, retain power or lose it. In this piece, YUSUF ALLI, MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION takes a look at some of the nation’s biggest political players and how their fortunes could be affected.

 THE next polls could turn on a number of factors: the effects of a repeat of the gale of defections witnessed in 2014; the aftermath of troubled primaries which altered the equation in some parties; and determining whether the template put in place in 2015 will be sustained or not in terms of upset and acceptance of results. For the first time in the nation’s electoral history, a ruling party was defeated by the opposition coalition.

Our findings show that in virtually every state of the country there is a flashpoint as gladiators try to outwit each other. Hitherto politically homogenous states are experiencing turbulence because of realignment of forces by kingmakers and power brokers.

Some of these gladiators include President Muhammadu Buhari, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senate President, Bukola Saraki, National Chairman of APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi.

Others include House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara, Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun, to name a few.

Muhammadu Buhari

History was kind to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 for winning the presidential race at the fourth attempt. He also broke records by defeating an incumbent president on the ticket of merged parties called the All Progressives Congress (APC).

After three and a half years in the saddle, the day of reckoning is here for Buhari. He faces three key challenges this time around: creating the right environment for a transparent poll as a sitting president, seeking re-election and sticking to the 2015 template which earned the nation respect in the comity of nations.

Last week, Buhari got a taste of the likely temperament of the coming poll when he was heckled by some lawmakers during the presentation of 2019 Budget to the National Assembly. It was a script hatched by the opposition to hurt his feelings but he dealt with the situation with calmness.

The 2019 poll is a major test for Buhari because his performance score card will be determined by the electorate. It is a referendum on his performance. Like a PDP governor said: “Buhari’s achievements will dominate his campaign, our party will puncture his claims and make new offers to Nigerians”.

If he wins the presidential poll, he would have survived the gang-up against him by the likes of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, ex-President Ibrahim Babangida and some former military leaders. He would have made mincemeat of those who defected from APC to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and overcome ethnic bigots who do not see anything good in him.

The odds favour him. Apart from enjoying cult followership in the North, APC is making inroads in the South-South and Southeast zones.

But if Buhari loses, a curtain would be drawn on his political career which will lead to his automatic retirement, his legacies might be wiped off and the All Progressives Congress (APC) could face the very real prospect of implosion. This is because he has become lie the glue holding together disparate political forces and interests in the party.

Atiku Abubakar

Arguably the aspirant/candidate with the oldest ambition having sought the position since 1992, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar has coveted the presidency more than any Nigerian politician.

He has a similar history of rising and falling like Buhari in the last 30 years. He lost the presidential primaries to the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola (1992); he was defeated in 2007 poll by ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua; wounded like a lion by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan at the PDP presidential primaries in 2011; and beaten to a third place at APC presidential primaries in 2014.

For the first time in his political career, history was kind to him at the PDP national convention this year when he emerged as the party’s presidential candidate following a consensus by some founding fathers of the party like Obasanjo, Babangida,  ex-National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, most of the PDP governors and leaders of various organs.

The recent reconciliation with Atiku by ex-President Obasanjo was mileage that has overshadowed the past garbage the ex-Vice President was bearing. In spite of rubbishing Atiku in past memoirs, the ex-President’s reconciliation with his erstwhile deputy, has no doubt changed the tempo of electioneering for next year.

A dogged fighter, the choice of Atiku (a Muslim Northerner like Buhari) has made the turf keener than expected. His strengths are a boyish look which betrays the fact that he is in his seventies like Buhari; a claim to ability to coordinate the economy having performed that role as VP, as well as a cosmopolitan disposition to issues. He has a penchant for litigation and might not concede easily if he is defeated.

He seems to be at home in the South-South and his choice of ex-Governor Peter Obi was strategic to win over the Southeast. But rather than help, Obi’s choice has created a wedge between him and some Igbo governors – leading to a strategic delay in campaigning in the zone.

If Atiku wins in February, he would have joined the roll-call of political giants whose rise to power had been topsy-turvy. Since age is no longer on his side, this is his last presidential race, he might not be fortunate to have a shot at it any more.

A loss by Atiku will be devastating as he would go down in his as an ambitious politician who made a couple of wrong and blew the best chance he had to be president.

Olusegun Obasanjo

Since 1979 when he made history as the first military Head of State in Africa to hand over power to a democratically elected civilian successor, Obasanjo has carved a niche for himself as the conscience of the nation.

His ego was later bruised by ex-Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, who jailed him for a phantom coup in 1995. But miraculously, he rode from prison to power on May 29, 1999 as the nation’s democratically president.

After power was foisted on him in 1999 by the military, he consolidated his grip on politics such that before his exit in 2007, he had put the PDP in his pocket.

In the last 11 years, he has carved a role for himself as a kingmaker in Nigerian politics. He was instrumental to the installation of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua; the choice of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan in 2010 and his election in 2011; and he backed President Muhammadu Buhari to win the 2015 poll. He enjoys the international limelight which has turned him into a political oracle of sorts.

Seeking to play the role of kingmaker once again, Obasanjo has drawn the battle line against Buhari in 2019 by openly declaring support for the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku.

Although he claims to be non-partisan, the ex-President explained his mission as follows: “Some may ask ‘what does Obasanjo want again?’ Obasanjo has wanted nothing other than the best for Nigeria and Nigerians and he will continue to want nothing less. And if we have the best, we will be contented whether where we live is described as palaces or huts by others and we will always give thanks to God.”

At 81, the 2019 poll is his last battle to prove his worth as a kingmaker. If he succeeds in dethroning Buhari, he will go down in history as having played a key role in making five presidents (Shagari, Yar’Adua, Jonathan, Buhari and whoever defeats the incumbent in 2019).

But if he fails, he would end his political career in shame. Like in the Canticle of Simeon, Buhari and his supporters will render the Nunc Dimittis for Obasanjo. His status as a statesman would also take a massive hit given his rather vitriolic interventions in the ongoing campaigns.

Ibrahim Babangida et al

Ex-President Ibrahim Babangida is suspected to be one of the forces behind the emergence of Atiku as PDP presidential candidate.

According to a governor, who spoke in confidence, Babangida’s core loyalist, ex-National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau coordinated last minute deals which gave the slot to Atiku at the PDP national convention in Port Harcourt.

The source said: “Midway into the negotiation with Gusau, we saw a former Head of the Civil Service of the Federation joining to deliver a message from ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. We all knew what the founding fathers of PDP wanted and we quickly bought into Atiku Project.”

But as a tactician, IBB likes to pull the strings from behind unlike his boss Obasanjo who wants to take credit for everything.

Babangida and some of his boys in the military, including a former Military Administrator for Niger State, Col. Habibu Shuaibu and ex-Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi, had toyed with the idea of propping up a former Minister of Special Duties, Kabiru Tanimu Turaki until a superior directive came from Obasanjo.

Beyond being a life time opportunity to settle old scores with Buhari, the Babangida camp is especially uncomfortable with another term for the President.  From a selfish angle, a second term for the incumbent would diminish the eight-year tenure of Babangida as a military president.

Also, Buhari has remained unbent in some of his major policies to the discomfiture of some loyalists of Babangida. It is therefore convenient to hide under “the drifting of the nation” accusation to seek his defeat at the poll.

A victory for Buhari can further demystify Babangida and his Hilltop Mansion in Minna will lose out as a choice destination for political intrigues and consultations. A loss by Buhari will make Babangida relevant and allow him wield influence in the next government.

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is a peculiar Nigerian politician with a large heart which accommodates all. He builds political bridges across the nation’s geopolitical zones with an uncanny zeal. He is a leader with futuristic outlook.

When Atiku Abubakar ran into a brick wall in 2007, it was Tinubu who made the Action Congress (AC) platform available to him to contest. Atiku was hounded by Obasanjo such that he had to campaign on crutches. But Asiwaju stood like the Rock of Gibraltar behind him. He is in a vantage position to know the ex-VP’s political strengths and weaknesses. This is why his choice as the Co-Chairman of the Presidential Campaign Council of the APC for 2019 poll is also timely and strategic.

He dreams and radiates every tenets of democracy and he espouses freedom, justice and liberty. Following the annulment of the reults of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, he joined forces with other democrats to form the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) to actualize the mandate of the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola. NADECO also fought for the return of Nigeria to democracy on May 29, 1999.

His emergence as the governor of Lagos State in 1999 set a new good governance code which other 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) have been struggling to emulate. Right from 1999, all the parties he joined have controlled Lagos State which confirmed his vision and commitment to sustainable development.

He is an incurable optimist whose singular efforts led to the merger of political parties in 2014 to form the coalition which defeated the then ruling PDP in 2015. The coalition, which was impossible in the First and Second Republics, redefined the nation’s political landscape.

As the Co-Chairman of the Presidential Campaign Council of the APC, the onus is on Tinubu to prove to Nigerians that APC has come to stay contrary to the insinuations of the opposition that it is convenient contrivance to keep power.

The next election will serve as a barometer to ascertain if Asiwaju and his loyalists are still in control of the Southwest – especially Lagos State. Once the Southwest votes for Buhari in 2019, the zone’s political alliance with the populous North is sealed for power shift to it in 2023.

A loss by APC at the centre and in the South-West will mark the end of APC coalition and it will be inglorious for Tinubu and his followers. The 2019 poll is significant for Asiwaju because it will define his next political move.

Bukola Saraki

Presently third in the nation’s political hierarchy, the meteoric rise of the President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, between 2003 and 2018 attests to the quality of his political heritage and survivalist skills. He has weathered several storms since his ascendancy as chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) in 2007.

His management of the National Assembly, especially his dexterity in ensuring stability in the Senate, has earned him credit even from his political enemies.

Saraki, a chip off the old block, aspired to be president twice but lost – including his recent defeat by Atiku at the PDP convention in Port Harcourt. Following that setback, he has bounced back as Director-General of the PDP’s Presidential Campaign Council.

For the Senate President, the 2019 poll is not just about Atiku winning, it is a battle for his political survival. He is he caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. He underwent tribulations and legal trials under the APC administration. He felt shortchanged, humiliated and believes he must pay back the ruling party in its own coins. He has a vengeance mission which fits the agenda of the PDP to upstage Buhari.

As the DG of the PDP campaign, Saraki is a motivator and a schemer who can give APC some nightmares in 2019 because of his political network. His greatest pain is that the defection train in 2018 was not as full was the case in 2014.

If APC wins the next poll, he ceases to be Senate President because all the tricks he explored in 2015 to occupy the position are now well known to his foes.

But if PDP defeats Buhari, he has a major obstacle before him because Atiku could be uncomfortable with him as Senate President – even though he was one of those who brought up Saraki in the presidency between 1999 and 2003.

Back home in Kwara the “O to ge” (Yoruba for ‘Enough is Enough’) revolution is a headache for Saraki who has never delivered up to one million votes to any political party in his career. He is in a tinder-box in his backyard despite his pretense that all his well. Even his political structure is already fractured following the fallout of the PDP governorship primaries in the state.

Notwithstanding, he is a politician to watch whether he will stay afloat to laugh last or be a product of stupefaction. He is on a dangerous edge but it would not be new to him. The Saraki Dynasty faced similar testy moments in 1978, 1983 and 2003.

Adams Oshiomhole

Like a football coach, the 2019 poll will no doubt decide the fate of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole who was crowned as the National Chairman of APC on June 23, 2018. Since his election, APC has won some governorship elections and by-elections into National Assembly and State Houses of Assembly. But the litmus test for him is the general election.

In the past few months, Oshiomhole has battled to assert the supremacy of the party against influence-peddling by some governors. He is already pitched against two, Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun) and Rochas Okorocha (Imo), over the conduct of the governorship primaries. Barely six months in office, a plot hatched to force him to resign only collapsed because of the opposition of President Buhari.

Although the South-South zone is not a natural political habitat of Buhari, it is expected that Oshiomhole’s chairmanship will add to the vote haul from the zone for Buhari. Beginning from his backyard in Edo to Akwa Ibom, the former governor is on the 2019 radar and Nigerians will want to know if he will have a victory dance.

If Oshiomhole fails to deliver, his tenure might be the shortest in the history of the APC. Any setback could equally affect his political fortress and standing in Edo.

Rotimi Amaechi

In and out of office, Buhari believes if he looks back, he must see the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, who was a former Governor of Rivers State.

As a political Spartan, the commitment which Amaechi put into the 2015 presidential poll campaign endeared him to the President to the extent that he wasted no time in reappointing the minister as the Director-General of the Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) of the APC.

Despite opposition to the reappointment of Amaechi, the President stood his ground because it was a personal choice without consultations with leaders and other organs of the party. So, Amaechi is a “favoured boy” of the President.

There is an arduous task before Amaechi and his team because the scenario has changed in the party with the defection of some APC stalwarts to PDP, including his erstwhile political soulmate, Dr. Bukola Saraki.

Having been part of the “rebels” who defected from APC to PDP, Amaechi knows where and how to checkmate his former co-travelers.

The minister is a player to watch in 2019 because he has a mandate to secure the re-election victory for Buhari and to displace Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike. How he is able to accomplish these formidable targets will either make him remain relevant in Abuja and Rivers, or become a political has-been..