2019: Hurdles before Buhari, Atiku

With the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidates of All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party respectively, Nigeria’s 2019 election promises to be a tough contest. Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, reports on some of the hurdles the two leading contestants are likely to face and some of the things that may go for them

EVEN before the political parties concluded their presidential primaries late last week, concerned observers have speculated on the likely texture and outcome of the 2019 elections. They however agreed the race would be mainly between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

While some contended that it would be a walkover for APC and its candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari, no matter who the PDP would produce as its candidate, others said it would all depend on how the PDP arrived at the choice of its presidential candidate. The fear was that if the process is flawed and gives birth to a candidate that is not generally acceptable to the aspirants, the party would implode, leaving a weakened opposition that would not be a match to the ruling party.

But with the election of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the Presidential Candidate of PDP last Sunday and the reported wide acceptance of the process that led to his emergence, especially the support so far given to him by the key stakeholders, including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the picture of the 2019 Presidential Election seems clearer.

Experience

As the two leading presidential contenders in the forthcoming presidential election prepare for the election, none would boast of confronting a neophyte in the game. The two are well experienced.

President Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of APC, is a sitting president. Aside the fact that he fought gallantly and defeated a sitting president in 2015 elections, he had contested severally for the position before the 2015 success. For example, he unsuccessfully contested for the plum seat in the 2003, 2007, and 2011 general elections. Before then, Buhari, a retired army general, was a Military Head of State between 31 December 1983 and 27 August 1985.

Alhaji Atiku, who worked in the Nigeria Customs Service for 20 years, rising to become the Deputy Director, as the second highest position in the Service was then known, is equally experienced. He was an elected Vice-President of Nigeria on the ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) between1999 and 2007 under President Olusegun Obasanjo.

A disciple and heir of late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua’s political machinery, his active partisan political career dates back to 1991, when he first ran for the office of governor in the then Gongola State (now Adamawa and Taraba states). In 1993 elections, he ran for a presidential ticket and placed third after Chief MKO Abiola and Amb. Babagana Kingibe in the Social Democratic Party’s primary election.

He was however elected the Governor of Adamawa State in 1998, but as fate would have it, while he was still the Governor-Elect, he was chosen by the Peoples Democratic Party’s Presidential Candidate, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, as running mate. The two went on to win elections in February 1999, thus making him Nigeria’s second democratically elected vice president. Since he left office in 2007, Atiku has remained very active in the country’s political theatre.

“Talking about experience, it is not certain any of the two candidates would be dismissed with a wave of the hand. I think they are both experienced enough. That is why this race should not be taken for granted by any of the candidates. In political parlance, it would be right to say it would be a grand clash of two warlords, a serious two-horse race,” said Dr. Israel Magbisa, a political analyst.

Image battle

Though the two candidates are already brandishing their past records as the reasons they believe they should be preferred for the top job, it has been noted that common Nigerians’ assessment or interpretation of the character traits of the two leaders may also prove to be tricky.

Considered for example as Mr. Integrity, a reputation that unarguably boosted his popularity rating in 2015 and earned him massive votes across the country, President Buhari will again depend largely on this virtue and the people’s assessment of him in this regard to win votes in 2019.

Dr. Magbisa explains that for Mr. President, the issue of integrity is today both a great asset and the litmus test he has to pass to win in 2019. “The question today is whether Mr. President, in the last three years of his administration, has proved his admirers and common Nigerians right that he is indeed Mr. Integrity as he purports or as his supporters said he is. That is what will determine whether he would still get the overwhelming votes he got in 2015. You will agree with me that over the years, so much have happened and so the handlers of Buhari will need to do more than just announce repeatedly that he is incorruptible. What is important now is how far his actions as the president have proven to the people that he is fair minded, honest and honourable in all instances. ”

Another issue Buhari may have to contend with, according to Magbisa, is the way he is perceived, especially by average Southeasterners or south-southerners, most of who have been made to believe that he is sectional. “Recall that Buhari’s political opponents used that claim to effectively blackmail him in the 2015 elections. They said he is an Igbo hater. That impression affected his performance in that part of the country. So, for the forthcoming 2019 elections, the performance of Buhari in the Southeast and South-south will most likely depend, to a very large extent, on how far he has worked to debunk that allegation and change that impression,” he said.

On Atiku, Magbisa is also critical on the image battle. As he puts it, “for PDP’s candidate, this is the very issue he must tackle if he hopes to win the votes of commoners across the country. There is no doubt that opponents of Atiku have continued to portray him as part of the corrupt elite that wrecked the country even though he is yet to be convicted for any crime. It would be recalled that the closest he has come to be linked to a corrupt case was the William Jefferson incidence in the United States. Atiku’s name had in that case come up in the trial of a former US congressman indicted over some felonies involving bribery in Nigeria. Though his supporters say he was never been tried over the matter or any other corruption case, close observers said Atiku must however convince Nigerians that the image of corruption, which his opponents have consistently tried to hang on his neck, is not true. His electoral fortunes, it seems, depends, to a very large extent on how far he is able to convince Nigerians that he is cleaner than his political opponents may try to portray him. This is even so because his opponent in the race, President Buhari, has continued to make anti-corruption the anchor of his campaigns.

Hunger in the land

Perhaps because of the harsh realities of today, most of the contenders in the 2019 presidential election have made management of economy a major campaign topic. The Nation investigation shows that in fact, most voters are eager to see which of the presidential candidates and political parties are willing and capable of ending the hunger in the land.

It is on record that one of President Buhari’s most advertised achievement is that his administration was able to navigate the country out of recession. On the surface, this should constitute an advantage for Buhari and APC, but reports that the hunger in the land has persisted and that the country seems headed towards another recession constitute major challenges for Buhari.

According to Bamidele Fadehun, “this is another factor that may pose as a hurdle for Atiku and PDP. This is so because APC’s government under Buhari has paid great emphasis on agriculture, a policy aimed at ending hunger. It is therefore incumbent on Atiku to prove that he has something better to offer.”

Fadehun told The Nation that notwithstanding these personalized hurdles; the two leading presidential candidates are contesting on strong platforms, national enough to win the 2019 polls. “APC and PDP are well established political parties today, but as an incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari seems to enjoy more advantages. So, Atiku has more points to prove, if he hopes to dislodge the current president,” Fadehun said.